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Matchup
Team:
BYU Cougars
Opponent:
Michigan Wolverines
NCAA DIVISION I · MEN'S BASKETBALL
2026-27 season · in progress · last game Nov 4, 2026 · ratings from 2025-26
SEASON
2026-27
2025-26
HOME
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TOURNAMENT
Any two teams at a neutral site. Pick both in the top right.
BYU
BYU Cougars
#24 · 1-0 · Big 12
18%
MICH
Michigan Wolverines
#1 · 1-0 · Big Ten
82%
NEUTRAL SITE · PROJECTED MARGIN
Michigan Wolverines by 8.4
Michigan Wolverines
The model's pick
82%
Win probability
+8.4
Expected margin at a neutral site
18%
Chance the focus team wins
15
%
What the efficiency rating alone says
22
%
What Elo alone says
A longer bar is always better
The two teams, measure by measure
A longer bar is always better
BYU Cougars
Michigan Wolverines
0
+10
+20
+30
Points per 100 possessions, except tempo
Efficiency margin
+18.0
+31.4
Offence above 100
+21.1
+25.3
Defence below 100
−3.1
+6.2
Tempo above 60
+7.9
+9.7
Win probability at a neutral site
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Win probability
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Tennessee Volunteers
Alabama Crimson Tide
St. John's Red Storm
Michigan State Spartans
UConn Huskies
Purdue Boilermakers
Iowa State Cyclones
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Houston Cougars
Illinois Fighting Illini
Florida Gators
Arizona Wildcats
Duke Blue Devils
Michigan Wolverines
Against the fifteen best teams in the country
Win probability at a neutral site
The blend, and each half of the model on its own
The same games, with both halves of the model
The blend, and each half of the model on its own
#
Opponent
Conference
Record
Margin
Model
Efficiency Only
Elo Only
Gap
1
Michigan Wolverines
Big Ten
1-0
−8.4
18
%
15
%
22
%
7
%
2
Duke Blue Devils
ACC
1-0
−7.7
20
18
22
4
3
Arizona Wildcats
Big 12
0-1
−6.5
24
21
28
7
4
Illinois Fighting Illini
Big Ten
1-0
−5.0
29
25
35
10
5
Florida Gators
SEC
1-0
−5.4
27
26
30
4
6
Houston Cougars
Big 12
1-0
−4.9
29
28
30
2
7
Iowa State Cyclones
Big 12
0-1
−3.9
33
29
40
11
8
Purdue Boilermakers
Big Ten
0-1
−3.7
34
31
38
7
9
Gonzaga Bulldogs
WCC
1-0
−4.0
33
33
33
0
10
UConn Huskies
Big East
1-0
−3.4
35
36
33
4
11
Michigan State Spartans
Big Ten
1-0
−3.0
37
38
36
2
12
Alabama Crimson Tide
SEC
1-0
−2.5
39
40
37
2
13
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Big Ten
1-0
−1.6
43
41
45
5
14
Tennessee Volunteers
SEC
1-0
−1.9
41
41
41
0
15
St. John's Red Storm
Big East
1-0
−2.5
39
41
35
6
Data as of 17:24 UTC on 5 Nov 2026
made with
dbt Charts