Did the model beat the market?
NCAA DIVISION I · MEN'S BASKETBALL
2025-26 season · final · last game Apr 7, 2026
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Three predictors, scored on the same season.
Regular season. A coin flip scores 0.250 on Brier.
Every model, every scoring rule
Regular season. A coin flip scores 0.250 on Brier.
Model
Accuracy
Brier
Log Loss
Skill vs Coin Flip
Margin Error
Margin Bias
Games
Forecast?
Blended season ratings
76
%
0.161
0.483
36
%
8.6
−0.22
5,435
No
Market consensus
72
0.178
0.524
29
9.0
+0.17
5,431
Yes
Elo, pregame
73
0.186
0.553
26
12.4
−4.29
5,968
Yes
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
Blended season ratings
Market consensus
Elo, pregame
0.161
0.178
0.186
Honest forecast
Saw the season
Brier score, lower is better
Regular-season accuracy
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
70%
75%
Regular-season accuracy
Elo, season by season
Regular-season accuracy
On the diagonal means well calibrated
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Probability the model stated
0%
50%
100%
Share that actually won
When a model says 70%, how often does it happen?
On the diagonal means well calibrated
Perfect calibration
Elo, pregame
Blended season ratings
Market consensus
Accuracy by type of game
Regular season
Other postseason
NCAA tournament
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Accuracy
Blended season ratings
Elo, pregame
Market consensus
The tournament is where confidence goes to die
Accuracy by type of game
Data as of 20:01 UTC on 3 Nov 2026
made with
dbt Charts