The tournament
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Twenty thousand simulated brackets: title odds, what a seed line is really
worth, and how fast the field thins.
Nothing here is a prediction of one tournament. It is the distribution of all
twenty thousand, which is the only honest thing a model can say about a
single-elimination field of 64.
Michigan Wolverines
Simulation favourite
26%
Title odds
58
%
Its odds of a Final Four
20,000
Tournaments simulated
0%
10%
20%
Michigan Wolverines
Duke Blue Devils
Arizona Wildcats
Florida Gators
Illinois Fighting Illini
Houston Cougars
Purdue Boilermakers
Iowa State Cyclones
Gonzaga Bulldogs
UConn Huskies
Michigan State Spartans
St. John's Red Storm
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers
Vanderbilt Commodores
Nebraska Cornhuskers
26.3%
20.3%
14.0%
8.5%
6.3%
5.4%
3.2%
2.9%
2.8%
2.2%
1.5%
1.1%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
Who wins it
Share of 20,000 simulated tournaments ending with this team holding the trophy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Seed
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Expected wins
What a seed line is worth
Average simulated wins for the four teams on each seed
Survival
A one seed is not four times a four seed. Read across a row to see where a seed
line usually stops, and down a column to see how quickly the field thins once
the games get hard.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Survival
How far each seed line gets
Share of simulations reaching the round. The grid is the bracket's own prior, priced.
Round of 32
Sweet 16
Elite Eight
Final Four
Title game
Champion
Round
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Seed
The field, by title odds
The twenty teams the simulation rates highest
Seed
Team
Conference
Region
Record
Margin
Sweet 16
Final Four
Title
Exp. Wins
1
Michigan Wolverines
Big Ten
East
36-3
+41.9
86
%
58
%
26.3
%
3.76
1
Duke Blue Devils
ACC
West
34-3
+40.5
85
52
20.3
3.53
1
Arizona Wildcats
Big 12
South
35-3
+37.9
82
41
14.0
3.18
2
Florida Gators
SEC
Midwest
26-8
+35.1
77
39
8.5
2.95
2
Illinois Fighting Illini
Big Ten
South
26-8
+36.6
71
25
6.3
2.60
2
Houston Cougars
Big 12
West
29-7
+34.5
71
24
5.4
2.50
1
Purdue Boilermakers
Big Ten
Midwest
28-9
+32.9
57
20
3.2
2.11
3
Iowa State Cyclones
Big 12
East
27-8
+33.7
64
15
2.9
2.10
4
Gonzaga Bulldogs
WCC
South
29-4
+31.6
66
15
2.8
2.07
2
UConn Huskies
Big East
East
33-6
+30.3
64
13
2.2
2.08
3
Michigan State Spartans
Big Ten
South
26-8
+29.6
58
10
1.5
1.84
5
St. John's Red Storm
Big East
Midwest
29-7
+27.7
44
10
1.1
1.51
3
Alabama Crimson Tide
SEC
West
24-10
+28.3
54
8
0.8
1.69
3
Tennessee Volunteers
SEC
Midwest
24-12
+27.8
42
8
0.6
1.38
4
Vanderbilt Commodores
SEC
West
26-9
+27.5
45
5
0.6
1.42
5
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Big Ten
East
28-7
+28.1
43
5
0.6
1.35
4
Virginia Cavaliers
ACC
Midwest
28-6
+26.9
35
6
0.5
1.28
5
Arkansas Razorbacks
SEC
West
28-8
+26.7
41
5
0.4
1.32
4
Louisville Cardinals
ACC
East
24-11
+27.5
38
4
0.4
1.19
8
Saint Mary's Gaels
WCC
Midwest
27-5
+24.4
26
5
0.3
1.08
Data as of 01:15 UTC on 16 Sep 2026
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