The tournament
NCAA DIVISION I · MEN'S BASKETBALL
2025-26 season · final · last game Apr 7, 2026
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Title odds and seed value from 20,000 simulated brackets.
Michigan Wolverines
Simulation favourite
26%
Title odds
58
%
Its odds of a Final Four
20,000
Tournaments simulated
Share of 20,000 simulations won
Who wins it
Share of 20,000 simulations won
1
MICH
Michigan Wolverines
1 seed · East · 36-3
26.3%
2
DUKE
Duke Blue Devils
1 seed · West · 34-3
20.3%
3
ARIZ
Arizona Wildcats
1 seed · South · 35-3
14.0%
4
FLA
Florida Gators
2 seed · Midwest · 26-8
8.5%
5
ILL
Illinois Fighting Illini
2 seed · South · 26-8
6.3%
6
HOU
Houston Cougars
2 seed · West · 29-7
5.4%
7
PUR
Purdue Boilermakers
1 seed · Midwest · 28-9
3.2%
8
ISU
Iowa State Cyclones
3 seed · East · 27-8
2.9%
9
GONZ
Gonzaga Bulldogs
4 seed · South · 29-4
2.8%
10
CONN
UConn Huskies
2 seed · East · 33-6
2.2%
11
MSU
Michigan State Spartans
3 seed · South · 26-8
1.5%
12
SJU
St. John's Red Storm
5 seed · Midwest · 29-7
1.1%
13
ALA
Alabama Crimson Tide
3 seed · West · 24-10
0.8%
14
TENN
Tennessee Volunteers
3 seed · Midwest · 24-12
0.6%
15
VAN
Vanderbilt Commodores
4 seed · West · 26-9
0.6%
16
NEB
Nebraska Cornhuskers
5 seed · East · 28-7
0.6%
Average simulated wins per team
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Seed
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Expected wins
What a seed line is worth
Average simulated wins per team
Share of simulations reaching each round
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Survival
How far each seed line gets
Share of simulations reaching each round
Round of 32
Sweet 16
Elite Eight
Final Four
Title game
Champion
Round
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Seed
Top 20 by title odds
The field, by title odds
Top 20 by title odds
Seed
Team
Conference
Region
Record
Margin
Sweet 16
Final Four
Title
Exp. Wins
1
Michigan Wolverines
Big Ten
East
36-3
+41.9
86
%
58
%
26.3
%
3.76
1
Duke Blue Devils
ACC
West
34-3
+40.5
85
52
20.3
3.53
1
Arizona Wildcats
Big 12
South
35-3
+37.9
82
41
14.0
3.18
2
Florida Gators
SEC
Midwest
26-8
+35.1
77
39
8.5
2.95
2
Illinois Fighting Illini
Big Ten
South
26-8
+36.6
71
25
6.3
2.60
2
Houston Cougars
Big 12
West
29-7
+34.5
71
24
5.4
2.50
1
Purdue Boilermakers
Big Ten
Midwest
28-9
+32.9
57
20
3.2
2.11
3
Iowa State Cyclones
Big 12
East
27-8
+33.7
64
15
2.9
2.10
4
Gonzaga Bulldogs
WCC
South
29-4
+31.6
66
15
2.8
2.07
2
UConn Huskies
Big East
East
33-6
+30.3
64
13
2.2
2.08
3
Michigan State Spartans
Big Ten
South
26-8
+29.6
58
10
1.5
1.84
5
St. John's Red Storm
Big East
Midwest
29-7
+27.7
44
10
1.1
1.51
3
Alabama Crimson Tide
SEC
West
24-10
+28.3
54
8
0.8
1.69
3
Tennessee Volunteers
SEC
Midwest
24-12
+27.8
42
8
0.6
1.38
4
Vanderbilt Commodores
SEC
West
26-9
+27.5
45
5
0.6
1.42
5
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Big Ten
East
28-7
+28.1
43
5
0.6
1.35
4
Virginia Cavaliers
ACC
Midwest
28-6
+26.9
35
6
0.5
1.28
5
Arkansas Razorbacks
SEC
West
28-8
+26.7
41
5
0.4
1.32
4
Louisville Cardinals
ACC
East
24-11
+27.5
38
4
0.4
1.19
8
Saint Mary's Gaels
WCC
Midwest
27-5
+24.4
26
5
0.3
1.08
Data as of 20:01 UTC on 3 Nov 2026
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