Matchup Charts home Rankings Scorecard Matchup Model Season Tournament Dashboard One game priced at a neutral site, with the two halves of the model shown separately so their disagreement is readable. The model is a blend of two ratings that fail differently: adjusted efficiency, which is opponent-adjusted and barely moves inside a season, and Elo, which is noisier but knows a team has won nine straight. The two cards on the right say what each half thinks on its own. When they agree, the game is what it looks like. When they disagree, the blend sits between them and the game is less settled than a single number suggests. This board is fixed on one matchup, because these pages render to static HTML and a picker would not survive the export. The matchup page on the dashboard is the same view with two team pickers on it. Michigan Wolverines The model's pick 89% Win probability+11.4 Expected margin at a neutral site 11% Chance the focus team wins9% What the efficiency rating alone says 15% What Elo alone says −10.0+0.0+10.0+20.0+30.0+40.0Points per 100 possessions, except tempoEfficiency marginOffence above 100Defence below 100Tempo above 60BYU CougarsMichigan WolverinesThe two teams, measure by measureEach measure is shifted so that a longer bar is always the better number Everyone worth being afraid of The same team against the fifteen best teams in the country, all at a neutral site, so nothing separates these games except how good the model thinks the two sides are. 0%20%40%60%80%100%Win probabilityNebraska CornhuskersTennessee VolunteersAlabama Crimson TideSt. John's Red StormMichigan State SpartansUConn HuskiesPurdue BoilermakersGonzaga BulldogsIowa State CyclonesIllinois Fighting IlliniHouston CougarsFlorida GatorsArizona WildcatsDuke Blue DevilsMichigan WolverinesAgainst the fifteen best teams in the countryNeutral site, so the only thing separating these is how good the model thinks the two teams are The same games, with both halves of the modelWhere the two disagree, the blend is somewhere between them and the game is less settled than one number suggests#OpponentConferenceRecordMarginModelEfficiency OnlyElo OnlyGap1Michigan WolverinesBig Ten36-3−11.411%9%15%5%2Duke Blue DevilsACC34-3−10.513121533Arizona WildcatsBig 1235-3−9.316141844Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten26-8−6.7231929105Florida GatorsSEC26-8−7.421192346Houston CougarsBig 1229-7−6.723232317Iowa State CyclonesBig 1227-8−5.627233298Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten28-9−5.328263049Gonzaga BulldogsWCC29-4−5.4272827110UConn HuskiesBig East33-6−4.7303326711Michigan State SpartansBig Ten26-8−4.0333431312Alabama Crimson TideSEC24-10−3.5353633313Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten28-7−2.2403843514Tennessee VolunteersSEC24-12−2.6383938115St. John's Red StormBig East29-7−3.535382910 Data as of 01:14 UTC on 16 Sep 2026 made withdbt Charts