Matchup
Any two teams in the country, priced at a neutral site. It opens on BYU against the best team in the field.
What each half of the model says
The prediction is a blend of two ratings that fail differently. Adjusted efficiency is opponent-adjusted and stable, but it describes a whole season and barely moves in March. Elo is noisier and not opponent-adjusted beyond who a team beat, but it is a time series, so it knows a team has won nine straight.
When the two agree, the game is what it looks like. When they disagree, the blend sits between them and the game is less settled than one number suggests.
The model
Efficiency rating alone
Elo alone
Each is the chance the first team wins. The two halves are
5.5% apart.Expected margin, neutral site
Expected margin, first team at home
Home court is worth 3.5 points in this model, applied to the host only. A neutral-site game passes zero, which is where the tournament is played and why that is the number the page leads with.