Tournament Odds
The 2025-26 season is over. This field and these odds are final: the last game was played
April 7, 2026 . The 2026-27 schedule has not been published yet, so there is nothing ahead to rate and nothing here is waiting on a fix. Everything updates itself on the first nightly run after the new fixtures land in the feed.The upcoming picks page is the one that needs those fixtures, so it is holding its tables until they arrive.
The bracket played 20,000 times. Each simulation plays all 63 games, drawing every result from the same matchup probabilities the rest of the site uses, and the odds below are simply how often each outcome happened.
Before Selection Sunday there is no official bracket, so this field is
projected: automatic bids to conference tournament champions, at-large places to the best remaining teams, seeded across four regions. It is a forecast of the bracket, not the bracket.Title contenders
Every team in the field
Expected wins is the sum of a team's odds of surviving each round. It ranks a field
better than title odds do, because title odds are dominated by a handful of teams while
most of a bracket is decided by whether a 6 seed reaches the second weekend.
Does seeding hold up?
If the seeding is sound, title odds should fall steadily as the seed number rises. Where it does not, the committee's ordering and the ratings disagree — which is exactly where the value in a bracket pool is.