NCAA Division I Men's Basketball
Tracking every Division I team through the season, and simulating the tournament at the end of it. Every number here comes out of a tested dbt model: how it works.
For one team on one screen, open the team scorecard. For any two teams priced against each other, open the matchup page. For the whole field in one order, open the rankings. For the games that have not been played yet, and what the model makes of them, open upcoming picks.
The 2025-26 season is over. Every number on this page is final: the last game was played
April 7, 2026 . The 2026-27 schedule has not been published yet, so there is nothing ahead to rate and nothing here is waiting on a fix. Everything updates itself on the first nightly run after the new fixtures land in the feed.The upcoming picks page is the one that needs those fixtures, so it is holding its tables until they arrive.
Division I teams
Conferences
Games played
Season
The top of the country
Ranked by adjusted efficiency margin — points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for the quality of the opponent. It is the single best one-number summary of how good a team is, and it is what the predictor runs on.
Offense against defense
Every team placed by what it does on each end. Up and to the right is good at both — the top left quadrant is elite offense, the bottom right elite defense. Teams furthest from the centre in either direction are the ones with a real identity.
Best of the season so far
The games the ratings said were least likely to go the way they did.